Portfolio & delivery governance · Field note

A portfolio needs scenarios, not a single annual plan

Replace the brittle annual plan with scenarios that make capacity, tradeoffs, and decision consequences visible.

TL;DR

Replace the brittle annual plan with scenarios that make capacity, tradeoffs, and decision consequences visible.

What the paper develops

A single annual plan becomes less useful as soon as capacity, dependencies, demand, or assumptions change. This paper replaces false precision with a small set of feasible portfolio scenarios that make tradeoffs and consequences visible. It shows how leaders can use triggers and recurring reviews to move among explicit options instead of improvising around a plan that no longer reflects reality.

The operating move

Maintain multiple feasible portfolio scenarios that show capacity, dependencies, and tradeoffs. When conditions change, leaders should be choosing among explicit options, not improvising around a frozen annual plan.

OWNEREVIDENCENEXT COMMITMENT

Inside the white paper

  • How to build feasible scenarios from capacity, demand, and dependencies
  • Assumptions, triggers, and consequences that distinguish each option
  • A steering cadence for choosing and adapting the active portfolio

Sources and notes

  1. Project Management Institute
  2. Bent Flyvbjerg