TL;DR
A gate has teeth only over a choice that is still open: the next hard-to-reverse commitment of money, people, or contracts.
What the paper develops
Ask a portfolio board when its last review changed how much money, how many people, or how much scope a project received. If no one can name a case, the review may be tracking progress rather than governing the investment. A board with well-chosen projects may rarely stop anything, so the test is not a count of stops. It is whether the review could have changed what the project received, and whether it ever did. A gate has teeth when it can change what a project receives: its money, its people, or its scope.
Reviews tend to fail in one of two ways. Some lack the authority to act: leaders ask for another slide, and the project keeps its funding, staff, and scope. Others vote yes or no on the whole project, once. A yes given early is hard to take back, because contracts are signed, people are hired, and other programs plan around the result. Research on escalation of commitment, the tendency to keep backing a failing course, also links personal responsibility with greater escalation, although the average effect of money already spent varied widely across studies.
A gate has teeth only over a choice that is still open, so the fix starts with where the gate sits. A stage drawn around a phase of work, such as design or build, can end after the point where reversing a step has become expensive. A gate should sit before the first step that is hard to reverse and decide that step: the next commitment, meaning a step that is hard to reverse because it spends a sum the board would not want to lose, pulls scarce people from other work, signs a contract, or lets other programs plan around the result.
Decide the next commitment, then give the board what it needs
To find the next commitment, list the steps the project will take, in order, and mark each as cheap or costly to reverse. A short test with no contract is cheap. A multi-year contract or a shared platform is costly. Approve the cheap work up to the next costly step, and review that step on its own with stronger evidence in front of it.
Three controls make the decision real. The board has written authority to continue, redirect, narrow, pause, or stop, with the effect of each outcome defined before the meeting. The evidence fits the size of the commitment and sits on a one-page evidence map. Someone other than the sponsor owns the key facts that could change the decision. Each approval then carries an end date, the three or four facts it rests on, and a trigger that sends the decision back to the board.
Test one gate before changing the whole process
Choose one mid-sized decision with real stakes. Write the next commitment in one sentence, and list what each of the five outcomes would do to money, people, scope, and dependencies. Record the decision, the assumptions, the triggers, the end date, and any dissent in the meeting, then check that money and people moved as directed.
After two or three reviews, compare what the board committed at each step with what was requested. If nothing ever changes and the board could not have changed it, fix the authority and the size of the commitment before adding templates. A gate earns its place when evidence can change the next commitment while the organization still has options.
What to do next
Test one mid-sized gate. List the project's commitments, review the next costly one on its own, and confirm that money and people move with the decision.
Inside the white paper
- Why a yes to the whole project is hard to take back
- How to find the next commitment and review it on its own
- How to test one gate before changing the whole process
Sources and notes
- Robert G. Cooper and Scott J. Edgett, Stage-Gate and the Critical Success Factors for New Product Development, BPTrends — Cooper and Edgett, who founded Stage-Gate Inc., describe incremental commitment, with gates deciding the next stage and its resources, and observe that a project that has begun has very little chance of being killed; this is a practitioner's observation, not a measured rate.
- Robert S. Pindyck, “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment,” Journal of Economic Literature 29(3), 1991, 1110–1148; NBER Working Paper 3307, 1990 — Pindyck's investment theory explains that an irreversible choice gives up the option to wait for more information; it is not a study of project reviews.
- Dustin J. Sleesman, Donald E. Conlon, Gerry McNamara, and Jonathan E. Miles, "Cleaning Up the Big Muddy: A Meta-Analytic Review of the Determinants of Escalation of Commitment," Academy of Management Journal 55(3), 2012, 541–562 — This meta-analysis links personal responsibility with escalation of commitment and finds a positive average sunk-cost effect that varies widely; it mostly studies individual decisions, not boards.
- Robert G. Cooper and Scott J. Edgett, "Portfolio Management: Fundamental for New Product Success," Stage-Gate International — Cooper and Edgett describe portfolio management as a dynamic process in which projects can be sped up, killed, or lowered in priority and resources are allocated and re-allocated.
- Bent Flyvbjerg, "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management," 2013 — Flyvbjerg proposes testing a forecast against the actual results of similar projects, because front-end estimates often diverge from what happens.